Pandemic to Kill Half the World'sPopulation?

Tuesday, March 31, 2009 at 3:04PM

No, I am not obsessed with death, dying, disease or fear-mongering. And yes, at first blush this may appear to be completely off-topic for a blog that targets sustainable development professionals and academics. Let meexplain why it is precisely on topic. Epidemiologists are very concernedabout the potential for global pandemics from two (2) different threats. There are others, but just for now. . . 1. Infectious diseases such as the West Nile virus and Dengue fever spreading and surviving because of warming global temperatures,increasing populations which put humans and both wild and domestic animals in close proximity, and theworldwide trade in exotic pets (which cause transgenetic diseases - passing from animals to humans). Researchers considering the threat of an avian influenza pandemic recently estimated the mortality at up to 81 million people. Seasonal influenza affects about 10% of the population annually, killing up to one million persons worldwide. Pandemic viruses have even greater potential for mortality. The pandemics notable for the largest death tollsinclude: (a) the first recorded outbreak of the bubonic plague that eliminated a quarter to half of the world's population between 550 and 700; (b) the Black Death that started in the 1300s and killed 20 to 30 million Europeans in six years; the first cholera pandemic that lasted from roughly 1816 to 1917 killing roughly 39 million; (d) the Spanish flu, from 1918-1919, spread globally within six months and estimates of the dead are between 50 and 100 million; (e) HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, is the current pandemic with an estimated death toll by 2025 of 100 million. 2. Possibly much worse are the potential implications of approximately 10 new species of living and fully viable bacteria that have survived more than 120,000 years in extreme cold and pressure in an oxygen-reduced atmosphere with limited food supply within a Greenland glacier. These bacteria have not evolved alongside our world's current species and we have not developed any immunity to them. With the melting of polar ice/glaciers, and thawing permafrost, many scientists anticipate the emergence and spread of any number of bacteria that have the potential to wipe out a species. One of these newfound bacteria, Chryseobacterium greenlandensisis a variety of Chryseobacterium that has been implicated in current conditions such as hepatitis, acute sepsis, infective endocarditis, septic arthritis, and chronic sclerosing osteomyelitis. Chryseobacterium is a primary disease agent in nosocomial infections in hospitals and nursing homes, as well as among children with cystic fibrosis and people with chronic lung conditions like asthma, emphysema and COPD. They also cause meningitis in newborns and sepsis in burn vicitms. While at the same time that our known bacteria are becoming increasingly resistant to antibiotics, we will be adding new bacteria that has evolved separately from man, and additionally, a bacteria that has the capability ofevolving through mutation, transduction or conjugationto create a new bacteria with altered DNA. Based upon the death toll in prior pandemics, half the world's population or about 1.7 billion humans could be vulnerable - the numbers could be much higher becauseofglobal travel and much of theworld's populationresiding in urban centers. So what?At this point you have read about the diseases that could kill us, maybe even wipe out more than half of the human population, butnot a word about how this isrelevant totoday's sustainable development professionals and academics? The answer is that "sustainable development" is not just about built environment design or achieving some level of buildingcertification - this is the micro level at which we earn a living, but there is another level that is also impacted by our actions. The built environment can help to improve health, equity, scarcity and amenity. Achieving sustainability (by any definition) is a complex and multidimensional challenge that requires changes in the root causes at the neighborhood, region and global levels. All right, still too theoretical, or are youdeafened by thethe sucking sound of our government's moneygoing out to buy Gucci shoes forthe leaders of developing nations? I don't want to 'cop out' by saying this topic is too much for this venue.In her latest book, Janis Birkeland, Hon. FIGP has said that achieving sustainability is all about reversing detrimental resource transfers through "positive development." Again, you think that I am off-topic in some theoretical fog that has no applicability to your professional practice in architecture, land-use planning, engineering, landscape architecture, appraisal, accounting or law, but I am not. I am now going to list eight (8) issues of "positive development" that can beapplied at the level of your professional practice, your community, the nation or the globe. For starters, pick alevel of applicability for you. Perhaps the easiest is at your community level, and then read each item as it relates to what you can do at the community level. Professor Birkeland's eight (8) issues that can begin to reverse detrimental resources through "positive development" are:

Improving human ecological health, resilience and viability Increase natural capital, biodiversity, and ecosystem goods and services Increase secure access to food and water Enhance urban space for both people and natural processes Transform our infrastructure from fossil fuel-driven to solar-powered Help correct imbalances in power and wealth Conserve open space, wilderness and natural resources Increase life quality and substantive life choices for present and future generations

Will any of these actions stop a pandemic? Some may lessen its impact, we cannot know for sure, but they move us towards positive development. What do you suggest? Even if you came to this site via Linkedin, please post your comments here - thank you. That is it for today . . . . and I highly recommend Professor Birkeland's bookentitled Positive Development: From Vicious Circles to Virtuous Cycles Through Built Environment Design. This book is a required text for IGP's course on "Sustainable Architecture" that is a partial prerequisitefor the Member (MIGP) or Fellow (FIGP) designations. An additional recommendation is the Pulitzer Prize winning book by Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies.